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March 28, 2026by Cristian0

I recently had the pleasure of joining the CBC to discuss two major stories dominating the global headlines right now: the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and a set of unprecedented legal rulings against tech giants Meta and YouTube.

If you missed the live broadcast, you can watch the full interview right here. For those who prefer a quick read, I’ve broken down my main speaking points and the key takeaways from our discussion below.

The Middle East War Impact on Inflation

Just as the global economy was showing signs of strengthening at the start of the year, the conflict in the Middle East has revived the spectre of inflation. The OECD’s recent updated outlook sharply increased inflation forecasts for major economies, expecting the G20 average to jump to 4% this year.

Overall, this is bad news for the economy. Similar to the shocks we saw during COVID-19, this is a supply-side issue. Higher gas prices impact everything that requires transport, and that naturally gets passed down to consumers. The big question right now is the length of this shock and whether it warrants intervention.

  • If the shock is transitory: If the conflict settles down soon and oil prices normalize, we shouldn’t expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to do anything. Prices will correct themselves in time.

  • If the shock extends: If the conflict drags on, consumer expectations of inflation will rise. This would force the BoC to act to keep inflation down, artificially constraining the economy; a necessary evil to limit long-term damage.

As always, the looming risk here is stagflation. If inflation becomes entrenched while the oil shock halts economic growth, the risk of not acting is far higher than the risk of acting. The BoC may judge that it is better to induce a mild, quickly recoverable recession to kill inflation, rather than suffering through stagnant growth paired with high prices.

Fortunately, the OECD report suggests a relatively minor inflation impact for Canada (around 0.3%) compared to the US (1.2%), largely because energy makes up a smaller portion of our consumer basket. However, if you are planning a holiday, be prepared. Jet fuel prices have spiked significantly, and airlines have been caught off guard. Due to the rising costs of hedging, many airlines stopped protecting themselves against fuel price volatility. For example, while Air Canada had hedged 17% of its costs, those hedges were against crude oil, not jet fuel, which has risen much faster due to refining costs.

Meta, YouTube, and the Changing Legal Landscape of Social Media

The second major topic we covered were the two recent legal case in the tech world. Meta was ordered to pay $375M US for misleading users about platform safety. Furthermore, in a first-of-its-kind lawsuit in California, a jury ordered Meta and YouTube to pay millions in damages to a 20-year-old woman, finding that the platforms were deliberately designed to hook young users without concern for their well-being.

The most fascinating aspect of this lawsuit is the legal strategy. Historically, tech companies have hidden behind Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, which protects them from liability regarding the content posted on their platforms. This lawsuit bypassed Section 230 entirely by focusing not on what content was shown, but how it was shown. We have known for a long time that these platforms are engineered to maximize engagement. The plaintiffs successfully argued that this specific engagement design directly caused mental health issues.

From a business perspective, not much will change in the immediate short term. These companies will inevitably appeal the decisions. The true point of interest is how successfully this legal argument can be replicated in other jurisdictions, as every country and state has its own unique consumer protection laws.

Here in Canada, we are already seeing movement. The current lawsuits against Meta in British Columbia and Ontario are taking a similar structural approach, though they follow the legal reasoning of a recent New Mexico ruling rather than the Californian one.

Watch the full segment: You can catch all the details and the complete discussion at the top of this post, or on the CBC website by clicking here.



July 17, 2025by Cristian0

Our new book is out for preorder! We have been working hard to get this book out, and we are thrilled to finally share it with you. While the book comes out in December 2025, you can already go through the labs! Find them here. A preliminary Table of Contents, Figures and Algorithms can be found here.

Deep Learning in Banking book cover

The book summarizes close to a decade of experience in applying deep learning to banking problems, with a focus on risk management. We are proud to have written a book structured for both academic and professional use. Our target is data scientists developing models, risk managers evaluating them, regulators shaping policy, and graduate students preparing for a career in financial technology. We assume you have a background in data science, but we guide you through the specific nuances of applying deep learning in the high-stakes environment of banking.

What’s Inside?

We wanted to create a single resource that bridges the gap between cutting-edge theory and the practical realities of banking. The book provides:

  • A Comprehensive Toolkit: Dive deep into the essential deep learning architectures—from Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for image analysis to Transformers for text and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for understanding financial contagion.
  • Real-World Case Studies: Each chapter is grounded in practical applications, using real data to demonstrate how these models can be applied to solve core banking challenges like mortgage default prediction, behavioral scoring, and risk analysis. We are proud to have received special permission from Freddie Mac to use their Single Family Loan Dataset for our book. We also use Fed speeches, network data, LiDAR, and a long list of alternative data for the book. All case studies are done on real data, with direct application to banking practice.
  • Focus on Trust and Compliance: The book dedicates significant attention to the critical themes of fairness, accountability, explainability, and the ever-evolving regulatory landscape, including frameworks like the EU AI Act and regulators worldwide.
  • Hands-On Learning: Every case study is accompanied by language-agnostic algorithms in the book, so it will never go out of fashion, and always up-to-date labs are available on the book’s companion website. This allows you to not just read about the models but to build and experiment with them yourself. You can try these right now!

Our goal was to create the book we wished we had: a single, unified resource that covers the data, the algorithms, and the business environment of AI in financial services. We believe that responsible AI can drive innovation and growth in banking, and this book is designed to give you the tools to build solutions that are safe, profitable, and productive. Interested? Preorder it now!

 



November 25, 2024by Cristian0

I was on the CBC News‘ Weekend Business Panel this Saturday, speaking about three topics:

1. The Canada Post Strike: The company is in dismal financial status, with seven years of losses, each year beating the next. The company wants to turn more into an Amazon-like delivery service, with contractors delivering parcels over the weekend, while the union wishes for their members to get paid overtime for these deliveries. Both of these requirements are unrealistic. Canada Post functions in a highly competitive environment, one where labour laws are many times overlooked. A solution must come via rethinking what is as modern post service that reaches rural and urban Canadians, possibly some reforms to the labour code to protect delivery workers across companies and provide a level playing field, and a more lean, efficient post office that delivers services as Canadian need them. Otherwise, the crown corporation is, in my opinion, doomed.

2. The GST holiday and the $200 incentive: This is a terrible policy. At best, it displaces consumption and reduces the fiscal arks with limited economic impact. At worst, it compounds an inflationary environment given the promised increased expenses by the incoming US president. If the latter occurs, then the BoC will react and either stay further rate cuts or, in a more extreme situation, increase the interest rate, eliminating any impact. This is a populist measure that has, sadly, proven quite popular by Doug Ford’s similar measures.

3. The latest inflation numbers: They were squarely in the BoC’s estimates, so nothing serious here. I do believe that the BoC hast to be cautious about the future. Donald Trump’s protectionist and expansionary policies may lead to an even weaker CAD, thus the risk of importing inflation in the future is high. The BoC must be thinking carefully whether they can keep cutting the interest rate or should they wait to see the impact of Trudeau’s, Ford’s and Trump’s policies.

Give it a watch below! This is my last panel of the year. I come back live on January 18th.



November 10, 2024by Cristian0

I am recruiting up to two new Ph.D. students for entry September 2025. I am running a shorter recruiting cycle this year given the new constraints on international students (Deadline: December 2nd, 2024!). The ad below:

Ph.D. Position in Banking Analytics – Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Western University

The Banking Analytics Lab at Western University invites applications for a fully funded Ph.D. position focusing on financial contagion in corporate and consumer credit risk. This cutting-edge research project aims to understand and model the interconnected nature of credit risk across different sectors of the economy, with direct applications in banking and financial regulation.

Position Details:
– Full funding guaranteed for four years.
– Annual stipend of CAD$30,000.
– Direct collaboration opportunities with major banks and regulatory bodies.
– Access to unique datasets and computing resources, plus annual funds for travelling and expenses.

The successful candidate will:
– Develop novel methodologies for analyzing financial contagion using deep learning techniques in consumer retail, small business lending, and/or corporate lending.
– Work at the intersection of machine learning, statistics, and banking over real, challenging datasets solving problems at the forefront of modern banking.
– Contribute to both academic research and practical applications.
– Engage with industry partners and regulatory bodies.

Required Qualifications:
– Master’s degree in Statistics, Operations Research, Computer Science, Economics, or related fields.
– Strong quantitative and programming skills. Python programming and knowledge of modern methods (pytorch, polars, spark, arrow, duckdb) is a strong plus.
– Excellent written and verbal communication abilities.
– Demonstrated interest in banking and financial applications.

Application Process:
1. Submit your CV and academic transcripts by December 2nd, 2024 to cbravoro@uwo.ca. Please mention your GRE scores and TOEFL/IELTS or similar tests, if available.
2. Selected candidates will be invited for interviews that same week.
3. Successful interviewees will be invited to submit a formal application to Western University.
4. Final acceptance will be determined by the Graduate Affairs Committee.

To apply or for more information, please contact me at cbravoro@uwo.ca.

The Banking Analytics Lab values diversity and encourages applications from all qualified individuals, including women, members of visible minorities, Indigenous peoples, and persons with disabilities. This position is available to anyone, worldwide.

At least one of these positions will be cosupervised by Dr. María Óskarsdóttir at Southampton University. The job post is below:

https://lnkd.in/gZ92cxaZ


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April 1, 2024by Cristian0

I was at the CBC News’ Weekend Business Panel this week, speaking about some interesting news that happened. Sadly, the CBC changed their policies, and now we don’t get a video of our participation, so I will be publishing these short summaries after every time I appear. This week we spoke of:

  • The MLS judgment in the US that may change the incentive structure of realtors: Looking at this from a pure incentive structure, the realtor business is poorly constructed. The buyer pays commission to their realtor based on a percentage of the purchase price, which means there are no economic incentives for their realtor to get them their best price (although they do have a fiduciary duty).
    • The lawsuit in the US will change the structure of the process. It will now require a contract between the realtor and the buyer directly, with agreed fees, before showing houses. Buyer representation agreements are already common in Canada, this lawsuit splits the buyer and the seller’s commission, thus providing incentives to realtors to lower their fees when representing the buyer.
      • There is a new rule prohibiting offers of broker compensation on the MLS, and from creating rules that would permit a seller’s agent to determine compensation for a buyer’s agent.
      • However, this also means homebuyers will have to consider an extra closing price, instead of the now baked into the mortgage fee. Fees should come down but will also need to be paid up front.
      • In the US, the realty companies are saying they will not change their practices, as nothing in the judgment forces them to. There is a difference in interpretation on what the judgment actually means. This will most likely lead to new lawsuits if the actual implementations differ for what the other side interpreted.
  • Home Depot’s acquisition of building material supplier SRS Distribution. Home Depot’s thinking is that growth will come from contractors as opposed to retail, that boomed during the pandemic and is now coming down. Their bet is that construction of new homes and government plans to stimulate construction in general will mean higher sales than what they are seeing in their stores.
    • Home Depot said that when taking the deal into account, it now believes its total addressable market is approximately $1 trillion, an increase of approximately $50 billion. Home Depot controls 17% of the market.
    • One pain point in Home Depot has always been logistics, one of SRS’ strengths with their warehouses and truck fleet. This can bring synergies into their main business, even though SRS will continue operating as an independent entity. Through the deal, expected to close by the end of fiscal 2024, Home Depot will add SRS’ network of more than 2,500 professional sales force in 760 plus locations to its footprint of over 2,000 U.S. stores and distribution centres. It would also allow Home Depot to take advantage of SRS’ more than 4,000 truck fleet and job site delivery capabilities.
    • There is still regulatory approval necessary. I am sure Lowe’s will have something to say about this deal. Maybe I’ll get to talk about this later again.
  • Cocoa prices have reached their highest value ever, hitting USD $10,000 per tonne. This is caused by a multifaceted problem. Short term: El Niño and West Africa pests, the swollen-shoot virus and black-pod disease, have been causing havoc with plantations. Just the Swollen-shoot virus affected 20% of all cocoa trees in the Ivory Coast. The war in Ukraine has also caused the sugar prices to go up, thus impacting further the price of chocolate.
    • Long term, though, there is a geopolitical issue. Farmers get about 5% of the price of a bar, or 30% – 50% of the price of a tonne of cocoa. Each producer can make around 1 tonne per year, thus the income of a farmer is around USD $5,000 yearly at best. This has lead to unsustainable practices. 14% of the Ivory Coast and 11.5% of Ghana are cocoa plantations and many are planted in protected areas, 37% of the Ivory Coast and 13% of Ghana’s deforestation comes from cocoa planting.
    • Any solution is super complex. As hard as solving hunger in Africa.  Only a mixture of better governments, better access to sustainable farming training and supplies, less corruption, more development and a strong coordination between governments and international agencies can tackle this. Sadly, to me, this hints we won’t see chocolate prices come down anytime soon, and if the underlying issues are not resolved, we will end up with chocolate scarcity in the long term.

Happy to hear your thoughts about this. I’ll be again next time in May. Always a fun experience!